This module function is used to specify the components of the
forecast module in EpiSewer.
Each component can be specified using one or several helper functions (see available options below). See the documentation of the individual helper functions to adjust various settings.
Usage
model_forecast(
horizon = horizon_none(),
damping = damping_assume(damping = 0.95)
)Arguments
- horizon
The forecast horizon. How many days into the future should EpiSewer forecast? Note that this functionality is intended for short-term forecasts. Projections over longer horizons can be highly inaccurate. Available options:
- damping
EpiSewer dampens the forecast of Rt so that trends in transmission will level off after some time. This prevents unrealistic extrapolation of transmission dynamics. Available options:
Details
Forecasts account for the estimated variation of transmission
dynamics over time and therefore tend to become more uncertain at longer
forecast horizons. However, it is important to keep in mind that depending
on the Rt model used, EpiSewer will project the current transmission
dynamics to continue unchanged (when using R_estimate_rw(),
R_estimate_splines(), R_estimate_piecewise()) or according to a
(dampened) linear trend (when using R_estimate_ets() and
R_estimate_changepoint_splines()). This assumption can be violated by
various factors such as depletion of susceptible individuals, changes in
behavior, or public health interventions.
See also
Other module functions:
model_infections(),
model_measurements(),
model_sampling(),
model_sewage(),
model_shedding()