Dampen forecasts

This option dampens the forecast of Rt so that trends in transmission will level off after some time. This prevents unrealistic extrapolation of transmission dynamics.

Usage

damping_assume(damping = 0.95, modeldata = modeldata_init())

Arguments

damping

The forecast damping parameter. A value of 1 means no damping, a value of 0 means flat forecast. The default is 0.8, which levels off after a horizon of approximately 2 weeks.

modeldata

A modeldata object to which the above model specifications should be added. Default is an empty model given by modeldata_init(). Can also be an already partly specified model returned by other EpiSewer modeling functions.

Value

A modeldata object containing data and specifications of the model to be fitted. Can be passed on to other EpiSewer modeling functions to add further data and model specifications.

The modeldata object also includes information about parameter initialization (.init), meta data (.metainfo), and checks to be performed before model fitting (.checks).

Details

The applied damping is exponential, i.e. the trend is reduced by damping^1 on the first forecast day, by damping^2 on the second forecast day, and so on.